Correlation between Oil and the Bullion Markets

Correlation between Oil and the Bullion Markets - Reference MCX data (S. Mandgi)


This is a statistical analysis of the MCX exchange to identify whether any correlation exists between the Oil Prices and the Bullion Prices ( Gold & Silver).  This method using regression analysis. The information table for analysis has been chosen from their website http://www.mcxindia.com/sitepages/realtimedata.aspx

Main Data 

Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)/Lots	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)/Lots	Month-Year
57630.65	1311280.45	554577.04	Feb-2005
132362.24	1492926	692900.02	Mar-2005
275824.58	1391875.57	513792.54	Apr-2005
403515.63	1361542.78	696960.07	May-2005
1025834.1	1530791.54	848613.35	Jun-2005
1955893.08	1083342.58	994230.52	Jul-2005
2740941.84	1270751.68	953765.39	Aug-2005
2688590.89	1807579.75	2414181.78	Sep-2005
2010215.72	2422228.53	2199385.07	Oct-2005
1450380.75	2368303.4	2608423.58	Nov-2005
1029696.14	3223181.11	4894473.86	Dec-2005
948291.3	3494238.83	6556802.61	Jan-2006
1194250.92	1938536.58	5758718.57	Feb-2006
1330380.32	3896481.39	7748336.67	Mar-2006
738551.33	7207205.98	7475297.91	Apr-2006
651179.87	6071277.89	10150417.59	May-2006
424607.95	4258583.65	7717549.93	Jun-2006
614862.02	3598952.08	10028712.99	Jul-2006
836074.24	4779742.73	8074195.27	Aug-2006
1275558.91	4868747.28	8681169.95	Sep-2006
1679149.03	4294365.09	7805387.14	Oct-2006
1699163.27	4379644.26	7008183.53	Nov-2006
1640493.16	4676568.52	4840012.05	Dec-2006
2529211.67	5585620.84	5645149.58	Jan-2007
2730830.15	5529072.42	6308839.1	Feb-2007
3325369.62	5944265.01	7022558.62	Mar-2007
2538789.71	4388504.49	4408963.36	Apr-2007
2444850.23	3873709.88	5381761.44	May-2007
2791854.09	4038947.14	4719385.77	Jun-2007
3512484.88	3539597.49	4829088.89	Jul-2007
4071387.43	4387989.95	4229747.79	Aug-2007
3176323.04	4222007.29	5810271.62	Sep-2007
4684780.59	5239697.55	8285033.18	Oct-2007
5154108.34	6628808.93	10386144.1	Nov-2007
5153276.59	4046305.1	7759148.93	Dec-2007
4671822.02	7085404.22	16669925.31	Jan-2008
4468044.92	7292145.03	14260015.15	Feb-2008
5275426.22	9216822.67	13868565.59	Mar-2008
5446577.38	6453967.32	10250063.16	Apr-2008
9230304	5560380.3	10579252.85	May-2008
11287930.81	6558813.86	13113103.07	Jun-2008
10822279.05	8494148.23	20076066.06	Jul-2008
7502891.61	7401530.05	16215325.61	Aug-2008
8953858.65	8931120.14	21524528.53	Sep-2008
6138823.07	6926098.73	16871983.04	Oct-2008
5377674.75	4959711.67	13718417.16	Nov-2008
6771616.16	5100578.99	16907140.81	Dec-2008
7938402.13	6776131.8	21051503.32	Jan-2009
6849426.38	7803863.21	23338041.32	Feb-2009
10782770.57	7749670.76	27457088.19	Mar-2009
9238346.15	5494679.24	15955495.1	Apr-2009
9712546.9	6631683.55	14787281.64	May-2009
11477869.1	9469903.46	13883118.96	Jun-2009
12887544.02	5741728.91	11108629.67	Jul-2009
11608057.38	7520559.45	9010227.1	Aug-2009
9671127.28	11028454.07	14016511.44	Sep-2009
10851078.38	10479374.66	13916734.13	Oct-2009
10802349.01	12602072.36	19219496.25	Nov-2009
9201447.36	11794199.6	24053481.19	Dec-2009
7473491.39	10482991.43	17801540.04	Jan-2010
9057913.3	11954575.34	19349438.54	Feb-2010
9922781.06	10970500.76	19118760.08	Mar-2010
10553054.42	9914325.4	16279630.38	Apr-2010
12420880.72	12532951.8	24456913.5	May-2010
12771847.37	13589497.77	26575953.66	Jun-2010
15920474.97	12518705.45	24563715.66	Jul-2010
16887973.8	13991490.84	19092471.64	Aug-2010
16708048.76	14978165.88	20256126.44	Sep-2010
8436735.54	13124421.01	12299375.15	Oct-2010

===============================================================

	Crude Oil	Silver	Gold
Mean	5739683.03	6395410.75	11241276.8
Median	4684780.59	5585620.84	10150417.6
Stddev	4557905.36	3595434.41	7291780.66

To begin our analysis we plot the TAnalysis for the Oil Prices, Gold Prices to have a first understanding whether our analysis approximation makes sense.

Then we try and combine the trend analysis for oil and the bullion markets during the same period of analysis.
The plot is as shown and the data used further confirms our views and we get follows :-

Month-Year	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)/Lots	Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)/Lots
Feb-2005	554577.04	57630.65	1311280.45
Mar-2005	692900.02	132362.24	1492926
Apr-2005	513792.54	275824.58	1391875.57
May-2005	696960.07	403515.63	1361542.78
Jun-2005	848613.35	1025834.1	1530791.54
Jul-2005	994230.52	1955893.08	1083342.58
Aug-2005	953765.39	2740941.84	1270751.68
Sep-2005	2414181.78	2688590.89	1807579.75
Oct-2005	2199385.07	2010215.72	2422228.53
Nov-2005	2608423.58	1450380.75	2368303.4
Dec-2005	4894473.86	1029696.14	3223181.11
Jan-2006	6556802.61	948291.3	3494238.83
Feb-2006	5758718.57	1194250.92	1938536.58
Mar-2006	7748336.67	1330380.32	3896481.39
Apr-2006	7475297.91	738551.33	7207205.98
May-2006	10150417.59	651179.87	6071277.89
Jun-2006	7717549.93	424607.95	4258583.65
Jul-2006	10028712.99	614862.02	3598952.08
Aug-2006	8074195.27	836074.24	4779742.73
Sep-2006	8681169.95	1275558.91	4868747.28
Oct-2006	7805387.14	1679149.03	4294365.09
Nov-2006	7008183.53	1699163.27	4379644.26
Dec-2006	4840012.05	1640493.16	4676568.52
Jan-2007	5645149.58	2529211.67	5585620.84
Feb-2007	6308839.1	2730830.15	5529072.42
Mar-2007	7022558.62	3325369.62	5944265.01
Apr-2007	4408963.36	2538789.71	4388504.49
May-2007	5381761.44	2444850.23	3873709.88
Jun-2007	4719385.77	2791854.09	4038947.14
Jul-2007	4829088.89	3512484.88	3539597.49
Aug-2007	4229747.79	4071387.43	4387989.95
Sep-2007	5810271.62	3176323.04	4222007.29
Oct-2007	8285033.18	4684780.59	5239697.55
Nov-2007	10386144.1	5154108.34	6628808.93
Dec-2007	7759148.93	5153276.59	4046305.1
Jan-2008	16669925.31	4671822.02	7085404.22
Feb-2008	14260015.15	4468044.92	7292145.03
Mar-2008	13868565.59	5275426.22	9216822.67
Apr-2008	10250063.16	5446577.38	6453967.32
May-2008	10579252.85	9230304	5560380.3
Jun-2008	13113103.07	11287930.81	6558813.86
Jul-2008	20076066.06	10822279.05	8494148.23
Aug-2008	16215325.61	7502891.61	7401530.05
Sep-2008	21524528.53	8953858.65	8931120.14
Oct-2008	16871983.04	6138823.07	6926098.73
Nov-2008	13718417.16	5377674.75	4959711.67
Dec-2008	16907140.81	6771616.16	5100578.99
Jan-2009	21051503.32	7938402.13	6776131.8
Feb-2009	23338041.32	6849426.38	7803863.21
Mar-2009	27457088.19	10782770.57	7749670.76
Apr-2009	15955495.1	9238346.15	5494679.24
May-2009	14787281.64	9712546.9	6631683.55
Jun-2009	13883118.96	11477869.1	9469903.46
Jul-2009	11108629.67	12887544.02	5741728.91
Aug-2009	9010227.1	11608057.38	7520559.45
Sep-2009	14016511.44	9671127.28	11028454.07
Oct-2009	13916734.13	10851078.38	10479374.66
Nov-2009	19219496.25	10802349.01	12602072.36
Dec-2009	24053481.19	9201447.36	11794199.6
Jan-2010	17801540.04	7473491.39	10482991.43
Feb-2010	19349438.54	9057913.3	11954575.34
Mar-2010	19118760.08	9922781.06	10970500.76
Apr-2010	16279630.38	10553054.42	9914325.4
May-2010	24456913.5	12420880.72	12532951.8
Jun-2010	26575953.66	12771847.37	13589497.77
Jul-2010	24563715.66	15920474.97	12518705.45
Aug-2010	19092471.64	16887973.8	13991490.84
Sep-2010	20256126.44	16708048.76	14978165.88
Oct-2010	12299375.15	8436735.54	13124421.01

Using Excel to calculate the regression analysis we get ;-

				Y-variable
X-variable	Univariate Stat		Filter	Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Mean	5739683.03	Correlation	1.0000	0.7929	0.8307
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Median	4684780.59	p-value		0.0000	0.0000
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Minimum	57630.65	Rank-Corr	1.0000	0.7886	0.8094
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Maximum	16887973.8	p[rank-corr]		0.0000	0.0000
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	N	69	N	69	69	69
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	P[Sign-Rank]	0.0000	intercept		3960417.9651	2634201.4935
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)			slope		1.2685	0.6553
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Mean	11241276.81	Correlation	0.7929	1.0000	0.8355
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Median	10150417.59	p-value	0.0000		0.0000
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Minimum	513792.54	Rank-Corr	0.7886	1.0000	0.8788
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Maximum	27457088.19	p[rank-corr]	0.0000		0.0000
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	N	69	N	69	69	69
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	P[Sign-Rank]	0.0000	intercept	168162.2032		1764630.6611
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)			slope	0.4956		0.4119
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Mean	6395410.75	Correlation	0.8307	0.8355	1.0000
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Median	5585620.84	p-value	0.0000	0.0000
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Minimum	1083342.58	Rank-Corr	0.8094	0.8788	1.0000
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Maximum	14978165.88	p[rank-corr]	0.0000	0.0000
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	N	69	N	69	69	69
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	P[Sign-Rank]	0.0000	intercept	-995290.5246	405216.6160
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)			slope	1.0531	1.6943

the p value < 0.05 indicates that the data used for the analysis is good and is acceptable as the sample population for our regression analysis.

Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Fitted	Residual
57630.65	554577.04	1311280.45	-38542.49	96173.14
132362.24	692900.02	1492926	118066.96	14295.28
275824.58	513792.54	1391875.57	10035.89	265788.69
403515.63	696960.07	1361542.78	26099.8	377415.83
1025834.1	848613.35	1530791.54	176681.48	849152.62
1955893.08	994230.52	1083342.58	-109555.91	2065448.99
2740941.84	953765.39	1270751.68	14532.3	2726409.54
2688590.89	2414181.78	1807579.75	692602.66	1995988.23
2010215.72	2199385.07	2422228.53	1082777.2	927438.52
1450380.75	2608423.58	2368303.4	1128405.93	321974.82
1029696.14	4894473.86	3223181.11	2200100.46	-1170404.32
948291.3	6556802.61	3494238.83	2731777.8	-1783486.5
1194250.92	5758718.57	1938536.58	1469617.96	-275367.04
1330380.32	7748336.67	3896481.39	3259756.72	-1929376.4
738551.33	7475297.91	7207205.98	5542293.35	-4803742.02
651179.87	10150417.59	6071277.89	5287479.15	-4636299.28
424607.95	7717549.93	4258583.65	3509214.41	-3084606.46
614862.02	10028712.99	3598952.08	3516326.08	-2901464.06
836074.24	8074195.27	4779742.73	3950311.32	-3114237.08
1275558.91	8681169.95	4868747.28	4137404.75	-2861845.84
1679149.03	7805387.14	4294365.09	3552464.85	-1873315.82
1699163.27	7008183.53	4379644.26	3449537.17	-1750373.9
1640493.16	4840012.05	4676568.52	3215505.15	-1575011.99
2529211.67	5645149.58	5585620.84	4022369.21	-1493157.54
2730830.15	6308839.1	5529072.42	4118263.89	-1387433.74
3325369.62	7022558.62	5944265.01	4557596.46	-1232226.84
2538789.71	4408963.36	4388504.49	2923819.11	-385029.4
2444850.23	5381761.44	3873709.88	2759311.53	-314461.3
2791854.09	4719385.77	4038947.14	2740454.46	51399.63
3512484.88	4829088.89	3539597.49	2410208.33	1102276.55
4071387.43	4229747.79	4387989.95	2886776.06	1184611.37
3176323.04	5810271.62	4222007.29	3093021.84	83301.2
4684780.59	8285033.18	5239697.55	4318336.61	366443.98
5154108.34	10386144.1	6628808.93	5729518.01	-575409.67
5153276.59	7759148.93	4046305.1	3367792.57	1785484.02
4671822.02	16669925.31	7085404.22	7338105.19	-2666283.17
4468044.92	14260015.15	7292145.03	6990899.05	-2522854.13
5275426.22	13868565.59	9216822.67	8270213.24	-2994787.02
5446577.38	10250063.16	6453967.32	5578173.16	-131595.78
9230304	10579252.85	5560380.3	5014392.53	4215911.47
11287930.81	13113103.07	6558813.86	6238199.52	5049731.29
10822279.05	20076066.06	8494148.23	9030250.77	1792028.28
7502891.61	16215325.61	7401530.05	7468348.19	34543.42
8953858.65	21524528.53	8931120.14	9635344.51	-681485.86
6138823.07	16871983.04	6926098.73	7266939.8	-1128116.73
5377674.75	13718417.16	4959711.67	5232615.72	145059.03
6771616.16	16907140.81	5100578.99	5984741.06	786875.1
7938402.13	21051503.32	6776131.8	8016428.13	-78026
6849426.38	23338041.32	7803863.21	9210311.87	-2360885.49
10782770.57	27457088.19	7749670.76	10015070.33	767700.24
9238346.15	15955495.1	5494679.24	6068329.45	3170016.7
9712546.9	14787281.64	6631683.55	6632318.7	3080228.2
11477869.1	13883118.96	9469903.46	8451946.94	3025922.16
12887544.02	11108629.67	5741728.91	5250828.3	7636715.72
11608057.38	9010227.1	7520559.45	6077770.31	5530287.07
9671127.28	14016511.44	11028454.07	9580077.8	91049.48
10851078.38	13916734.13	10479374.66	9171832.86	1679245.52
10802349.01	19219496.25	12602072.36	11756432.55	-954083.54
9201447.36	24053481.19	11794199.6	12175178.97	-2973731.61
7473491.39	17801540.04	10482991.43	9969481.39	-2495990
9057913.3	19349438.54	11954575.34	11325689.81	-2267776.51
9922781.06	19118760.08	10970500.76	10583409.46	-660628.4
10553054.42	16279630.38	9914325.4	9256337.67	1296716.75
12420880.72	24456913.5	12532951.8	12779541.24	-358660.52
12771847.37	26575953.66	13589497.77	13959495.79	-1187648.42
15920474.97	24563715.66	12518705.45	12791337.75	3129137.22
16887973.8	19092471.64	13991490.84	12711803.68	4176170.12
16708048.76	20256126.44	14978165.88	13646870.81	3061177.95
8436735.54	12299375.15	13124421.01	10709051.29	-2272315.75
	N	N
	2	2
	0	0
	0	0
Model Term	Coefficient	DoF	Error_DoF	R²	F[Type I]	P[Type I]	F[Type III]	p[Type III]
Intercept	-1078225.24
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	0.2	1	66	0.6938	149.52	0.0000	7.7	0.0072
Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	0.71	1	66	0.2525	22.3	0.0000	22.3	0.0000
Full Model		2	66	0.7225	85.91	0.0000

The full model fit value of R^2 shows a value of 72 % when an analysis is done for all three commodities

A two way R squared analysis between gold and crude oil is shown below ;-

Gold (Rs in Lakhs)/Lots	Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	Fitted	Residual
554577.04	57630.65	4033523.16	-3478946.12
692900.02	132362.24	4128321.1	-3435421.08
513792.54	275824.58	4310304.85	-3796512.31
696960.07	403515.63	4472282.53	-3775322.46
848613.35	1025834.1	5261701.2	-4413087.85
994230.52	1955893.08	6441492.5	-5447261.98
953765.39	2740941.84	7437336.56	-6483571.17
2414181.78	2688590.89	7370928.73	-4956746.95
2199385.07	2010215.72	6510401.44	-4311016.37
2608423.58	1450380.75	5800243.87	-3191820.29
4894473.86	1029696.14	5266600.24	-372126.38
6556802.61	948291.3	5163337.2	1393465.41
5758718.57	1194250.92	5475340.01	283378.56
7748336.67	1330380.32	5648021.84	2100314.83
7475297.91	738551.33	4897279.45	2578018.46
10150417.59	651179.87	4786447.68	5363969.91
7717549.93	424607.95	4499038.4	3218511.53
10028712.99	614862.02	4740378.03	5288334.96
8074195.27	836074.24	5020988.47	3053206.8
8681169.95	1275558.91	5578480.2	3102689.75
7805387.14	1679149.03	6090439.26	1714947.88
7008183.53	1699163.27	6115827.57	892355.96
4840012.05	1640493.16	6041403.81	-1201391.76
5645149.58	2529211.67	7168754.22	-1523604.64
6308839.1	2730830.15	7424509.75	-1115670.65
7022558.62	3325369.62	8178690.42	-1156131.8
4408963.36	2538789.71	7180904.08	-2771940.72
5381761.44	2444850.23	7061740.69	-1679979.25
4719385.77	2791854.09	7501919.37	-2782533.6
4829088.89	3512484.88	8416048.44	-3586959.55
4229747.79	4071387.43	9125023.23	-4895275.44
5810271.62	3176323.04	7989622.99	-2179351.37
8285033.18	4684780.59	9903120.03	-1618086.85
10386144.1	5154108.34	10498468.08	-112323.98
7759148.93	5153276.59	10497412.99	-2738264.06
16669925.31	4671822.02	9886681.92	6783243.39
14260015.15	4468044.92	9628188.15	4631827
13868565.59	5275426.22	10652361.31	3216204.28
10250063.16	5446577.38	10869468.67	-619405.51
10579252.85	9230304	15669172.64	-5089919.79
13113103.07	11287930.81	18279297.67	-5166194.6
20076066.06	10822279.05	17688612.66	2387453.4
16215325.61	7502891.61	13477928.68	2737396.93
21524528.53	8953858.65	15318498.3	6206030.23
16871983.04	6138823.07	11747590.88	5124392.16
13718417.16	5377674.75	10782064.83	2936352.33
16907140.81	6771616.16	12550296.73	4356844.08
21051503.32	7938402.13	14030379.15	7021124.17
23338041.32	6849426.38	12648999.96	10689041.36
27457088.19	10782770.57	17638495.66	9818592.53
15955495.1	9238346.15	15679374.21	276120.89
14787281.64	9712546.9	16280903.72	-1493622.08
13883118.96	11477869.1	18520236.74	-4637117.78
11108629.67	12887544.02	20308426.79	-9199797.12
9010227.1	11608057.38	18685382.18	-9675155.08
14016511.44	9671127.28	16228362.42	-2211850.98
13916734.13	10851078.38	17725144.97	-3808410.84
19219496.25	10802349.01	17663331.16	1556165.09
24053481.19	9201447.36	15632567.63	8420913.56
17801540.04	7473491.39	13440634.14	4360905.9
19349438.54	9057913.3	15450492.91	3898945.63
19118760.08	9922781.06	16547588.35	2571171.73
16279630.38	10553054.42	17347097.89	-1067467.51
24456913.5	12420880.72	19716458.63	4740454.87
26575953.66	12771847.37	20161664.16	6414289.5
24563715.66	15920474.97	24155737.18	407978.48
19092471.64	16887973.8	25383021.4	-6290549.76
20256126.44	16708048.76	25154784.26	-4898657.82
12299375.15	8436735.54	14662521.24	-2363146.09
	N
	2
	0
	0

Model Term	Coefficient	DoF	Error_DoF	R²	F[Type I]	P[Type I]	F[Type III]	p[Type III]
Intercept	3960417.97
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	1.27	1	67	0.6287	113.45	0.0000	113.45	0.0000
Full Model		1	67	0.6287	113.45	0.0000

The above R^2 analysis provides the equation

Gold (Rs in Lakhs)/Lots=3960417.97+1.27CrudeOil



This equation indicates that the price of Gold  from the year 2004  was 3960418(lakhs per lot) which is represented by the coefficient of the equation.
This equation also indicates that with a unit increase in the crude oil price will cause a 127 % increase in the gold prices
The R square of determination is approx 63 % which indicates a good sample of information of the population



A two analysis between silver and crude oil is shown below ;-

Silver(Rs in Lakhs)/Lots	Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	Fitted	Residual
1311280.45	57630.65	2671966.81	-1360686.36
1492926	132362.24	2720938.35	-1228012.35
1391875.57	275824.58	2814949.1	-1423073.53
1361542.78	403515.63	2898624.93	-1537082.15
1530791.54	1025834.1	3306429.68	-1775638.14
1083342.58	1955893.08	3915896.51	-2832553.93
1270751.68	2740941.84	4430338.28	-3159586.6
1807579.75	2688590.89	4396032.75	-2588453
2422228.53	2010215.72	3951494.09	-1529265.56
2368303.4	1450380.75	3584634.73	-1216331.33
3223181.11	1029696.14	3308960.47	-85779.36
3494238.83	948291.3	3255615.95	238622.88
1938536.58	1194250.92	3416793.07	-1478256.49
3896481.39	1330380.32	3505998.55	390482.84
7207205.98	738551.33	3118173.53	4089032.45
6071277.89	651179.87	3060919.09	3010358.8
4258583.65	424607.95	2912446.71	1346136.94
3598952.08	614862.02	3037120.04	561832.04
4779742.73	836074.24	3182080.21	1597662.52
4868747.28	1275558.91	3470074.13	1398673.15
4294365.09	1679149.03	3734546.38	559818.71
4379644.26	1699163.27	3747661.69	631982.57
4676568.52	1640493.16	3709215.22	967353.3
5585620.84	2529211.67	4291591.68	1294029.16
5529072.42	2730830.15	4423712.1	1105360.32
5944265.01	3325369.62	4813313.29	1130951.72
4388504.49	2538789.71	4297868.16	90636.33
3873709.88	2444850.23	4236309.71	-362599.83
4038947.14	2791854.09	4463701.03	-424753.89
3539597.49	3512484.88	4935929.76	-1396332.27
4387989.95	4071387.43	5302178.11	-914188.16
4222007.29	3176323.04	4715643.2	-493635.91
5239697.55	4684780.59	5704134.11	-464436.56
6628808.93	5154108.34	6011684.17	617124.76
4046305.1	5153276.59	6011139.13	-1964834.03
7085404.22	4671822.02	5695642.37	1389761.85
7292145.03	4468044.92	5562107.41	1730037.62
9216822.67	5275426.22	6091183.67	3125639
6453967.32	5446577.38	6203338.88	250628.44
5560380.3	9230304	8682811.61	-3122431.31
6558813.86	11287930.81	10031172.66	-3472358.8
8494148.23	10822279.05	9726031.47	-1231883.24
7401530.05	7502891.61	7550839.79	-149309.74
8931120.14	8953858.65	8501657.22	429462.92
6926098.73	6138823.07	6656966.87	269131.86
4959711.67	5377674.75	6158187.04	-1198475.37
5100578.99	6771616.16	7071635.63	-1971056.64
6776131.8	7938402.13	7836229.45	-1060097.65
7803863.21	6849426.38	7122624.6	681238.61
7749670.76	10782770.57	9700141.59	-1950470.83
5494679.24	9238346.15	8688081.63	-3193402.39
6631683.55	9712546.9	8998824.96	-2367141.41
9469903.46	11477869.1	10155639.05	-685735.59
5741728.91	12887544.02	11079397.79	-5337668.88
7520559.45	11608057.38	10240951.32	-2720391.87
11028454.07	9671127.28	8971682.72	2056771.35
10479374.66	10851078.38	9744903.64	734471.02
12602072.36	10802349.01	9712971.33	2889101.03
11794199.6	9201447.36	8663901.88	3130297.72
10482991.43	7473491.39	7531573.85	2951417.58
11954575.34	9057913.3	8569844.14	3384731.2
10970500.76	9922781.06	9136591.22	1833909.54
9914325.4	10553054.42	9549608.8	364716.6
12532951.8	12420880.72	10773593.74	1759358.06
13589497.77	12771847.37	11003581.88	2585915.89
12518705.45	15920474.97	13066874.78	-548169.33
13991490.84	16887973.8	13700875.92	290614.92
14978165.88	16708048.76	13582971.2	1395194.68
13124421.01	8436735.54	8162786.9	4961634.11

Model Term	Coefficient	DoF	Error_DoF	R²	F[Type I]	P[Type I]	F[Type III]	p[Type III]
Intercept	2634201.49
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	0.66	1	67	0.6901	149.19	0.0000	149.19	0.0000
Full Model		1	67	0.6901	149.19	0.0000

You arrive at an equation :-

Silver(Rs in Lakhs)/Lots=2634201.49 + 0.66Crude Oil



This equation indicates that the price of silver from the year 2004 was 2634201.49(lakhs per lot) which is represented by the coefficient of the equation without considering other factors.
This equation also indicates that with a unit increase in the crude oil price will cause a 66 % increase in the silver prices
The R square of determination is approx 70 % which indicates a good sample of information of the population.

Similarly when you do the R square analysis between Silver and Gold you get

Silver(Rs in Lakhs)
Model Term	Coefficient	DoF	Error_DoF	R²	F[Type I]	P[Type I]	F[Type III]	p[Type III]
Intercept	1764630.66
Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	0.41	1	67	0.6980	154.84	0.0000	154.84	0.0000
Full Model		1	67	0.6980	154.84	0.0000

Silver(Rs in Lakhs)=1764630.66+0.41Gold(Rs in Lakhs)



This equation indicates that the price of silver from the year 2004 the silver price was 1764630.66(lakhs per lot) which is represented by the coefficient of the equation.
This equation also indicates that with a unit increase in the gold price will cause a 41 % increase in the silver prices
The R square of determination is approx 70 % which indicates a good sample of information of the population.


The Chi Square analysis is shown below :-

Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Total
57630.65	554577.04	1311280.45	1865857.49
132362.24	692900.02	1492926	2185826.02
275824.58	513792.54	1391875.57	1905668.11
403515.63	696960.07	1361542.78	2058502.85
1025834.1	848613.35	1530791.54	2379404.89
1955893.08	994230.52	1083342.58	2077573.1
2740941.84	953765.39	1270751.68	2224517.07
2688590.89	2414181.78	1807579.75	4221761.53
2010215.72	2199385.07	2422228.53	4621613.6
1450380.75	2608423.58	2368303.4	4976726.98
1029696.14	4894473.86	3223181.11	8117654.97
948291.3	6556802.61	3494238.83	10051041.44
1194250.92	5758718.57	1938536.58	7697255.15
1330380.32	7748336.67	3896481.39	11644818.06
738551.33	7475297.91	7207205.98	14682503.89
651179.87	10150417.59	6071277.89	16221695.48
424607.95	7717549.93	4258583.65	11976133.58
614862.02	10028712.99	3598952.08	13627665.07
836074.24	8074195.27	4779742.73	12853938
1275558.91	8681169.95	4868747.28	13549917.23
1679149.03	7805387.14	4294365.09	12099752.23
1699163.27	7008183.53	4379644.26	11387827.79
1640493.16	4840012.05	4676568.52	9516580.57
2529211.67	5645149.58	5585620.84	11230770.42
2730830.15	6308839.1	5529072.42	11837911.52
3325369.62	7022558.62	5944265.01	12966823.63
2538789.71	4408963.36	4388504.49	8797467.85
2444850.23	5381761.44	3873709.88	9255471.32
2791854.09	4719385.77	4038947.14	8758332.91
3512484.88	4829088.89	3539597.49	8368686.38
4071387.43	4229747.79	4387989.95	8617737.74
3176323.04	5810271.62	4222007.29	10032278.91
4684780.59	8285033.18	5239697.55	13524730.73
5154108.34	10386144.1	6628808.93	17014953.03
5153276.59	7759148.93	4046305.1	11805454.03
4671822.02	16669925.31	7085404.22	23755329.53
4468044.92	14260015.15	7292145.03	21552160.18
5275426.22	13868565.59	9216822.67	23085388.26
5446577.38	10250063.16	6453967.32	16704030.48
9230304	10579252.85	5560380.3	16139633.15
11287930.81	13113103.07	6558813.86	19671916.93
10822279.05	20076066.06	8494148.23	28570214.29
7502891.61	16215325.61	7401530.05	23616855.66
8953858.65	21524528.53	8931120.14	30455648.67
6138823.07	16871983.04	6926098.73	23798081.77
5377674.75	13718417.16	4959711.67	18678128.83
6771616.16	16907140.81	5100578.99	22007719.8
7938402.13	21051503.32	6776131.8	27827635.12
6849426.38	23338041.32	7803863.21	31141904.53
10782770.57	27457088.19	7749670.76	35206758.95
9238346.15	15955495.1	5494679.24	21450174.34
9712546.9	14787281.64	6631683.55	21418965.19
11477869.1	13883118.96	9469903.46	23353022.42
12887544.02	11108629.67	5741728.91	16850358.58
11608057.38	9010227.1	7520559.45	16530786.55
9671127.28	14016511.44	11028454.07	25044965.51
10851078.38	13916734.13	10479374.66	24396108.79
10802349.01	19219496.25	12602072.36	31821568.61
9201447.36	24053481.19	11794199.6	35847680.79
7473491.39	17801540.04	10482991.43	28284531.47
9057913.3	19349438.54	11954575.34	31304013.88
9922781.06	19118760.08	10970500.76	30089260.84
10553054.42	16279630.38	9914325.4	26193955.78
12420880.72	24456913.5	12532951.8	36989865.3
12771847.37	26575953.66	13589497.77	40165451.43
15920474.97	24563715.66	12518705.45	37082421.11
16887973.8	19092471.64	13991490.84	33083962.48
16708048.76	20256126.44	14978165.88	35234292.32
8436735.54	12299375.15	13124421.01	25423796.16
Total	775648099.55	441283341.72	1216931441.27
Expected	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)
57630.65	1189260.76	676596.73
132362.24	1393202.39	792623.63
275824.58	1214635.27	691032.84
403515.63	1312049.12	746453.73
1025834.1	1516585.75	862819.14
1955893.08	1324204.12	753368.98
2740941.84	1417863.31	806653.76
2688590.89	2690867.53	1530894
2010215.72	2945725.36	1675888.24
1450380.75	3172067.62	1804659.36
1029696.14	5174033.18	2943621.79
948291.3	6406335.58	3644705.86
1194250.92	4906078.62	2791176.53
1330380.32	7422177.36	4222640.7
738551.33	9358338.4	5324165.49
651179.87	10339388.76	5882306.72
424607.95	7633351.34	4342782.24
614862.02	8686004.94	4941660.13
836074.24	8192846.57	4661091.43
1275558.91	8636450	4913467.23
1679149.03	7712143.43	4387608.8
1699163.27	7258376.84	4129450.95
1640493.16	6065680.76	3450899.81
2529211.67	7158271.57	4072498.85
2730830.15	7545251.33	4292660.19
3325369.62	8264797.64	4702025.99
2538789.71	5607332.5	3190135.35
2444850.23	5899254.88	3356216.44
2791854.09	5582388.66	3175944.25
3512484.88	5334035.65	3034650.73
4071387.43	5492776.07	3124961.67
3176323.04	6394376.71	3637902.2
4684780.59	8620396.62	4904334.11
5154108.34	10844995.48	6169957.55
5153276.59	7524563.56	4280890.47
4671822.02	15141178.52	8614151.01
4468044.92	13736921.83	7815238.35
5275426.22	14714171.17	8371217.09
5446577.38	10646819.58	6057210.9
9230304	10287083.85	5852549.3
11287930.81	12538491.87	7133425.06
10822279.05	18210091.11	10360123.18
7502891.61	15052918.01	8563937.65
8953858.65	19411829.8	11043818.87
6138823.07	15168427.96	8629653.81
5377674.75	11905070.93	6773057.9
6771616.16	14027286.55	7980433.25
7938402.13	17736785.79	10090849.33
6849426.38	19849235.75	11292668.78
10782770.57	22440093.78	12766665.17
9238346.15	13671918.07	7778256.27
9712546.9	13652025.97	7766939.22
11477869.1	14884755.91	8468266.51
12887544.02	10740086.23	6110272.35
11608057.38	10536397.32	5994389.23
9671127.28	15963167.06	9081798.45
10851078.38	15549598.59	8846510.2
10802349.01	20282440.23	11539128.38
9201447.36	22848604.72	12999076.07
7473491.39	18028002.51	10256528.96
9057913.3	19952561.05	11351452.83
9922781.06	19178301.42	10910959.42
10553054.42	16695510.8	9498444.98
12420880.72	23576610.6	13413254.7
12771847.37	25600666.57	14564784.86
15920474.97	23635603.85	13446817.26
16887973.8	21087065.18	11996897.3
16708048.76	22457643.01	12776649.31
8436735.54	16204626.25	9219169.91
(O-E)²/E	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)	Total
57630.65	338717.5	595367.1	934084.6
132362.24	352011.61	618734.29	970745.9
275824.58	404385.2	710791.88	1115177.08
403515.63	288353.94	506842.58	795196.52
1025834.1	294205.01	517127.06	811332.07
1955893.08	82224.92	144527.55	226752.47
2740941.84	151909.48	267012.8	418922.28
2688590.89	28449.94	50006.73	78456.67
2010215.72	189095.64	332375.28	521470.92
1450380.75	100153.79	176041.32	276195.11
1029696.14	15104.93	26550.09	41655.02
948291.3	3534.05	6211.84	9745.89
1194250.92	148182.48	260461.81	408644.28
1330380.32	14332.71	25192.74	39525.45
738551.33	378896.48	665990.1	1044886.58
651179.87	3453.79	6070.77	9524.56
424607.95	928.74	1632.46	2561.2
614862.02	207559.74	364829.81	572389.54
836074.24	1718.34	3020.35	4738.69
1275558.91	231.56	407.02	638.58
1679149.03	1127.36	1981.58	3108.94
1699163.27	8624.06	15158.6	23782.66
1640493.16	247666.15	435325.24	682991.39
2529211.67	319845.11	562194.91	882040.02
2730830.15	202606.27	356123.04	558729.31
3325369.62	186714.53	328189.97	514904.5
2538789.71	256109.05	450165.41	706274.46
2444850.23	45395.47	79792.07	125187.54
2791854.09	133414.93	234504.74	367919.67
3512484.88	47800.81	84019.96	131820.77
4071387.43	290425.17	510483.2	800908.37
3176323.04	53356.06	93784.48	147140.54
4684780.59	13046.81	22932.5	35979.31
5154108.34	19413.99	34124.16	53538.14
5153276.59	7313.42	12854.87	20168.29
4671822.02	154351.71	271305.52	425657.23
4468044.92	19919.06	35011.94	54931
5275426.22	48595.93	85417.54	134013.47
5446577.38	14785.23	25988.14	40773.37
9230304	8298.05	14585.56	22883.61
11287930.81	26333.15	46286.04	72619.2
10822279.05	191205.11	336083.12	527288.23
7502891.61	89762.76	157776.89	247539.64
8953858.65	229936.9	404162.36	634099.26
6138823.07	191325.03	336293.9	527618.93
5377674.75	276203.69	485485.96	761689.65
6771616.16	591244.82	1039236.88	1630481.7
7938402.13	619466.93	1088843.16	1708310.1
6849426.38	613210.73	1077846.57	1691057.3
10782770.57	1121663.44	1971558.94	3093222.39
9238346.15	381418.61	670423.28	1051841.89
9712546.9	94403.97	165934.79	260338.76
11477869.1	67402.96	118474.85	185877.8
12887544.02	12646.48	22228.84	34875.32
11608057.38	221061.85	388562.61	609624.46
9671127.28	237388.24	417259.66	654647.9
10851078.38	171467.21	301389.62	472856.83
10802349.01	55705.82	97914.67	153620.48
9201447.36	63536.8	111679.27	175216.07
7473491.39	2844.76	5000.25	7845.01
9057913.3	18231.08	32044.95	50276.03
9922781.06	184.85	324.92	509.77
10553054.42	10359.46	18208.93	28568.39
12420880.72	32868.73	57773.69	90642.42
12771847.37	37154.69	65307.17	102461.86
15920474.97	36444.66	64059.14	100503.8
16887973.8	188665.58	331619.36	520284.94
16708048.76	215814.06	379338.52	595152.58
8436735.54	941150.13	1654268.91	2595419.04
Total	11821361.54	20778524.23	32599885.77
Variance calcs	Gold (Rs in Lakhs)	Silver(Rs in Lakhs)
57630.65	0	0	0	0	0
132362.24	0	1492926	1492926	2185826.02	2185826.02
275824.58	0	2783751.14	2783751.14	3811336.22	7622672.44
403515.63	0	4084628.34	4084628.34	6175508.55	18526525.65
1025834.1	0	6123166.16	6123166.16	9517619.56	38070478.24
1955893.08	0	5416712.9	5416712.9	10387865.5	51939327.5
2740941.84	0	7624510.08	7624510.08	13347102.42	80082614.52
2688590.89	0	12653058.25	12653058.25	29552330.71	206866314.97
2010215.72	0	19377828.24	19377828.24	36972908.8	295783270.4
1450380.75	0	21314730.6	21314730.6	44790542.82	403114885.38
1029696.14	0	32231811.1	32231811.1	81176549.7	811765497
948291.3	0	38436627.13	38436627.13	110561455.84	1216176014.24
1194250.92	0	23262438.96	23262438.96	92367061.8	1108404741.6
1330380.32	0	50654258.07	50654258.07	151382634.78	1967974252.14
738551.33	0	100900883.72	100900883.72	205555054.46	2877770762.44
651179.87	0	91069168.35	91069168.35	243325432.2	3649881483
424607.95	0	68137338.4	68137338.4	191618137.28	3065890196.48
614862.02	0	61182185.36	61182185.36	231670306.19	3938395205.23
836074.24	0	86035369.14	86035369.14	231370884	4164675912
1275558.91	0	92506198.32	92506198.32	257448427.37	4891520120.03
1679149.03	0	85887301.8	85887301.8	241995044.6	4839900892
1699163.27	0	91972529.46	91972529.46	239144383.59	5022032055.39
1640493.16	0	102884507.44	102884507.44	209364772.54	4606024995.88
2529211.67	0	128469279.32	128469279.32	258307719.66	5941077552.18
2730830.15	0	132697738.08	132697738.08	284109876.48	6818637035.52
3325369.62	0	148606625.25	148606625.25	324170590.75	8104264768.75
2538789.71	0	114101116.74	114101116.74	228734164.1	5947088266.6
2444850.23	0	104590166.76	104590166.76	249897725.64	6747238592.28
2791854.09	0	113090519.92	113090519.92	245233321.48	6866533001.44
3512484.88	0	102648327.21	102648327.21	242691905.02	7038065245.58
4071387.43	0	131639698.5	131639698.5	258532132.2	7755963966
3176323.04	0	130882225.99	130882225.99	311000646.21	9641020032.51
4684780.59	0	167670321.6	167670321.6	432791383.36	13849324267.52
5154108.34	0	218750694.69	218750694.69	561493449.99	18529283849.67
5153276.59	0	137574373.4	137574373.4	401385437.02	13647104858.68
4671822.02	0	247989147.7	247989147.7	831436533.55	29100278674.25
4468044.92	0	262517221.08	262517221.08	775877766.48	27931599593.28
5275426.22	0	341022438.79	341022438.79	854159365.62	31603896527.94
5446577.38	0	245250758.16	245250758.16	634753158.24	24120620013.12
9230304	0	216854831.7	216854831.7	629445692.85	24548382021.15
11287930.81	0	262352554.4	262352554.4	786876677.2	31475067088
10822279.05	0	348260077.43	348260077.43	1171378785.89	48026530221.49
7502891.61	0	310864262.1	310864262.1	991907937.72	41660133384.24
8953858.65	0	384038166.02	384038166.02	1309592892.81	56312494390.83
6138823.07	0	304748344.12	304748344.12	1047115597.88	46073086306.72
5377674.75	0	223187025.15	223187025.15	840515797.35	37823210880.75
6771616.16	0	234626633.54	234626633.54	1012355110.8	46568335096.8
7938402.13	0	318478194.6	318478194.6	1307898850.64	61471245980.08
6849426.38	0	374585434.08	374585434.08	1494811417.44	71750948037.12
10782770.57	0	379733867.24	379733867.24	1725131188.55	84531428238.95
9238346.15	0	274733962	274733962	1072508717	53625435850
9712546.9	0	338215861.05	338215861.05	1092367224.69	55710728459.19
11477869.1	0	492434979.92	492434979.92	1214357165.84	63146572623.68
12887544.02	0	304311632.23	304311632.23	893069004.74	47332657251.22
11608057.38	0	406110210.3	406110210.3	892662473.7	48203773579.8
9671127.28	0	606564973.85	606564973.85	1377473103.05	75761020667.75
10851078.38	0	586844980.96	586844980.96	1366182092.24	76506197165.44
10802349.01	0	718318124.52	718318124.52	1813829410.77	103388276413.89
9201447.36	0	684063576.8	684063576.8	2079165485.82	120591598177.56
7473491.39	0	618496494.37	618496494.37	1668787356.73	98458454047.07
9057913.3	0	717274520.4	717274520.4	1878240832.8	112694449968
9922781.06	0	669200546.36	669200546.36	1835444911.24	111962139585.64
10553054.42	0	614688174.8	614688174.8	1624025258.36	100689566018.32
12420880.72	0	789575963.4	789575963.4	2330361513.9	146812775375.7
12771847.37	0	869727857.28	869727857.28	2570588891.52	164517689057.28
15920474.97	0	813715854.25	813715854.25	2410357372.15	156673229189.75
16887973.8	0	923438395.44	923438395.44	2183541523.68	144113740562.88
16708048.76	0	1003537113.96	1003537113.96	2360697585.44	158166738224.48
8436735.54	0	892460628.68	892460628.68	1728818138.88	117559633443.84
	0	19414975823.1	15.95	44.58	2278.73
	0	441283341.72	0.36
	0	441283341.72	0.36
					P-Value
General Association		c	²(68) =	32599885.77	0.0000
MH Ordinal Association		c	²(1) =	801292.17	0.0000

The 2 way ANNOVA shows -

ANOVA Table
Source of Variation	df	Mean Square	F	p>F
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)	68	54951713038872.9	4.93	0.0000
Column	1	810143415063145	72.69	0.0000
Error	68	11145500746394.7
Total

Carrying out a time regression analysis we get

Model Term	Coefficient	DoF	Error_DoF	R²	F[Type I]	P[Type I]	F[Type III]	p[Type III]
Intercept	684785.31
Time Period(Month)	272810.64	1	66	0.7249	173.9	0.0000	23.26	0.0000
Crude Oil (Rs. In Lakhs)/Lots	0.18	1	66	0.0075	0.5	0.4831	0.5	0.4831
Full Model		2	66	0.7255	87.2	0.0000

Gold (Rs in Lakhs)/Lots=272810TimePeriod + 0.18Crude Oil(Rs in Lakhs)/Lot
The time equation indicates that for every additional month a unit increase in the crude oil prices will cause an 18 percent increase of the gold prices ignoring the other variables for the regression analysis.


The above analysis concludes the following :-

The information for the analysis are real time data picked from MCX India.

Regression Analysis was carried out using both correlation regression , multiple regression and time regression

The p values for all analysis were < 0.05 which indicated good quality of sampling of data chosen for the analysis

The R square values of the analysis indicated that there does exist a positive correlation between the bullion prices and the oil prices . This can also be confirmed by the trend analysis graphs. Silver is replacing gold as a substitute commodity in the MCX markets. There could be distortion in the analysis due to other parameters such as influence of world markets, seasonal demands and forex markets to name a few.

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